Goldman Estimates GLP-1 Effects Could Boost GDP by 1%

Biotech companies developing GLP-1 agonists for weight loss treatment are being keenly pursued by more mature pharmaceutical companies that have missed the bandwagon so far. This is because use of GLP-1s could increase by 10 – 70 million consumers by 2028, perhaps becoming the largest drug class in history.

Reuters reports that the widespread use of powerful new weight loss drugs in the US could boost GDP by 1% in the coming years as lower obesity-related complications are likely to boost workplace efficiency, citing a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

Some analysts have predicted the market for weight-loss drugs could reach $100 billion a year by the end of the decade, with Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk and Mounjaro producer Eli Lilly leading the race. The class of drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, are being keenly pursued by several companies and more could enter the market depending on clinical trials. “If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” Goldman economists said in a note. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are both less likely to work and less productive when they do.” The brokerage estimated weight-loss drugs could bolster U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.4% in a scenario with 30 million users, and could rise to 1% with 60 million users.

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The current wave of healthcare innovation such as AI-powered drug discovery coupled with GLP-1s could raise the level of U.S. GDP by 1.3% in the coming years, equivalent to $360 billion per year in current exchange rates, with potential for an increase ranging from 0.6% to 3.2%. “Effects are likely to be larger in the U.S. than in other countries, as health outcomes in other developed markets are generally better,” the brokerage added.

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Goldman Estimates GLP-1 Effects Could Boost GDP by 1% was last modified: February 27th, 2024 by Simons Chase